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On June 4, 2026, Pakistan accused India of 'weaponising water' by proceeding with two projects on the Chenab River—a water transfer tunnel and sediment removal at Salal Power Station—which Pakistan claims violate the Indus Water Treaty. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi stated that these projects endanger Pakistan's water, food, and economic security, threatening consequences. India had suspended the treaty in 2025 after a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, but Pakistan insists the treaty remains binding. India rejected a May 15, 2026 ruling by the Court of Arbitration that the treaty is still in effect. The dispute follows armed conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours in May 2025.
The Indus Water Treaty was signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank, to allocate the waters of the Indus River system. It grants India exclusive use of the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) and Pakistan of the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), with limited exceptions for Indian hydroelectric projects. The treaty established a Permanent Indus Commission and a three-tier dispute resolution mechanism (Commission → Neutral Expert → Court of Arbitration). It survived the 1965, 1971, and 1999 wars. Tensions escalated in 2016 after the Uri attack, leading to India reviewing the treaty. In 2025, following a deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir (April 2025), India suspended the treaty, stating it was in abeyance. Pakistan has consistently maintained that the treaty remains in force. The current dispute involves two Indian projects: a tunnel transferring water from the Chenab to the Beas basin, and sediment removal at Salal Power Station. The Court of Arbitration ruled in May 2026 that the treaty continues to bind both nations, but India rejected the ruling, calling the court 'illegally constituted.'
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26 MayPolitical & Constitutional Dimensions: India asserts its sovereignty to use water resources within its territory, citing Article 253 (treaty-making power) and entry 17 (water) of the State List. The 2025 suspension followed the Kashmir attack, linking water to counter-terrorism. Pakistan argues the treaty is a binding bilateral agreement under international law (Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties), and unilateral suspension is invalid. India’s rejection of the Court of Arbitration underscores its position that suspension nullifies treaty obligations. Domestic politics in both countries influence hardline stances; water is a nationalist issue.
Economic & Financial Impact: The tunnel project could supplement water for irrigation and power in the Beas basin, benefiting Indian agriculture (Punjab, Haryana). Salal Power Station (690 MW) sediment removal may restore generation capacity. Pakistan fears reduced Chenab flow threatens its agriculture (Punjab province) and hydropower (e.g., 3,690 MW Mangla Dam project). Water scarcity costs both nations; the World Bank estimates South Asia loses $2.3 billion annually from water stress. The dispute could deter international investment in water infrastructure.
Social Dimensions: 250 million Pakistanis depend on Indus waters; reduced flows could cause food insecurity and displacement. In India, projects are framed as development, but ecological concerns arise (e.g., river connectivity). Climate change exacerbates water stress; both countries face melting glaciers and erratic monsoons. The dispute stokes communal tensions; water insecurity may fuel extremism.
Governance & Administrative Aspects: The Permanent Indus Commission—the treaty's operational body—is defunct since India's suspension. No bilateral mechanism exists for consultation; Pakistan claims India failed to notify projects as per treaty provisions. Implementation of projects faces challenges: land acquisition, environmental clearances, and technological feasibility. The lack of a neutral dispute resolution forum (due to India's rejection of the Court) leaves a governance vacuum, risking unilateral actions.
International Perspective: The World Bank, as treaty guarantor, faces constraints; it cannot compel compliance. UN instruments (e.g., 1997 UN Watercourses Convention) encourage equitable use but are not binding on India or Pakistan. Similar transboundary river disputes exist globally (e.g., Nile, Mekong), but the Indus treaty is considered a model—now jeopardized. The dispute invites external powers; China (a Pakistan ally) has its own water projects upstream on the Indus. The International Court of Justice could be approached, but both countries must consent.
Short-term: Both nations should de-escalate rhetoric and resume technical-level talks under the Permanent Indus Commission framework, even if limited. India could share project designs under the treaty’s existing provisions for ‘run-of-the-river’ plants. Pakistan should facilitate inspection visits to verify compliance.
Medium-term: Revive the treaty’s dispute resolution mechanism by agreeing to a Neutral Expert (as per Article IX) instead of the contested Court of Arbitration. The World Bank could mediate confidence-building measures, such as joint climate resilience projects. Both countries should update the treaty to reflect climate change impacts and population growth.
Long-term: Establish a joint water management authority for the Indus basin, similar to the Mekong River Commission, incorporating data sharing and early warning systems. Encourage water conservation and alternative sources (e.g., desalination, groundwater recharge) to reduce dependence on the Indus. International best practices include the 1995 Ganges Treaty (Bangladesh-India) and the 1994 SADC Protocol on Shared Watercourses (Southern Africa). Ultimately, resolving the Kashmir dispute could remove the overarching political hurdle.