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Current AffairsEnvironment

Global temperatures to reach near-record highs in next five years, report finds

Thursday, 28 May 20268 min read1,509 words30

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In this article

ContextBackground & Historical EvolutionKey Points & FactsMulti-Dimensional AnalysisWay Forward

Context

A joint report by the UN weather agency (WMO) and the U.K.’s Met Office, released on May 28, 2026, warns that average global temperatures are forecast to reach near-record levels over the next five years (2026-2030). Annual global mean near-surface temperatures will likely range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. The report states it is 'very likely' that the 1.5°C threshold will be temporarily exceeded for at least one year during this period, and that one year between 2026 and 2030 will break the 2024 record (the warmest year on record, when temperatures first surpassed 1.5°C). Arctic warming is projected to be more than 3.5 times the global average, reaching 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 baseline, leading to sea-ice melt and disruption of weather systems. A strong El Niño event is predicted for winter 2026, potentially persisting into 2027 and driving further temperature increases. The report covers regional precipitation forecasts, including wetter northern hemisphere winters and contrasting dry conditions in the Amazon.

Background & Historical Evolution

The 2026 report is the latest in an annual series of climate predictions produced by the WMO and UK Met Office. [General Knowledge: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has been producing global climate reports for decades, with increasing focus on decadal predictions under the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS).] The key reference point for this report—the 1.5°C threshold—originates from the 2015 Paris Agreement, where governments committed to holding the global average temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. [General Knowledge: The Paris Agreement was adopted in December 2015 and entered into force in November 2016. It is a legally binding international treaty on climate change, under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).] The 1.5°C goal was emphasised further following the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) in 2018, which highlighted the severe impacts of even 1.5°C of warming. [General Knowledge: The 2023 WMO State of the Global Climate report confirmed 2023 as the warmest year on record, followed by 2024 breaking that record.] The current report’s prediction that a single year may temporarily exceed 1.5°C reflects growing certainty about ongoing warming. It builds on previous predictions: [General Knowledge: In 2023, WMO reported a 66% chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C in the next five years; this likelihood has now increased.] The report also highlights the Arctic amplification phenomenon, which has been observed and modelled for decades—the Arctic warming at a rate roughly 2-4 times faster than the global average, driven by ice-albedo feedback.

Key Points & Facts

Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Way Forward

Short-term measures (1-2 years): Governments must immediately use the report to update climate risk assessments and prepare for near-term El Niño impacts, including food security and disaster preparedness plans. The WMO should accelerate the dissemination of regional seasonal forecasts to help farmers and water managers, particularly in the Sahel and Amazon. [Source]: The report's specific regional predictions provide a ready-made framework for targeted action.Medium-term reforms (3-5 years): The report underscores the need to close the emissions gap. Nations must submit enhanced NDCs by 2025 that are aligned with 1.5°C. This should include strengthening policies on methane reduction (Global Methane Pledge), phasing down coal (Glasgow COP26), and scaling up investment in renewables (as per IRENA recommendations). Developed countries must fulfill the $100 billion annual climate finance commitment and operationalise the Loss and Damage Fund agreed at COP27.Long-term vision (2030 onwards): Achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. This requires transformative changes in energy, transport, industry, and agriculture. The Arctic amplification detailed in the report (3.5x global average warming) should lead to a dedicated international research and adaptation programme for Arctic and sub-Arctic communities. The temporary nature of the 1.5°C exceedance should not lead to complacency; instead, it should energise efforts to bring long-term average warming back through carbon dioxide removal technologies and large-scale ecosystem restoration, while prioritising deep emissions cuts.

What can be asked in exam?

  • •Prelims angle: The Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target refers to a long-term average over 20 years, not a single year's exceedance.
  • •Prelims angle: El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, lasting typically 9-12 months.
  • •Prelims angle: Arctic amplification means Arctic winter temperatures are rising at more than 3-1/2 times the global average (report: 2.8°C above 1991-2020 baseline).
  • •Mains angle: Discuss the implications of the WMO-Met Office report (2026-30) on the credibility and future of the Paris Agreement. (GS-II, GS-III, 250 words)
  • •Mains angle: Arctic amplification is projected to be 3.5 times the global average. Analyse its global climate, geopolitical, and social implications with reference to the report. (GS-I, GS-II, 250 words)

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OPSC PYQ 1 (2022) — Science

Genetic engineering, a revolutionary branch of biotechnology, continues to evolve rapidly, transforming the way we approach medicine, agriculture and various scientific endeavours. Recent developments in this field highlight both the immense potential and ethical considerations that come with the power to manipulate DNA. In the medical realm, gene editing technologies like CRISPR-Cas9 have gained prominence. These tools offer unprecedented precision in modifying genes, holding promise for treating genetic disorders. In a groundbreaking clinical trial, researchers successfully used gene editing to treat sickle cell anaemia. The patient’s own modified cells were reintroduced into their body, resulting in reduced symptoms and an improved quality of life. In agriculture, genetic engineering is driving advancements in crop production and food security. The development of Genetically Modified (GM) crops has enabled plants to resist pests, withstand harsh climates and improve nutritional content. For instance, GM rice has been biofortified to contain higher levels of essential vitamins, potentially combating malnutrition in regions where rice is a staple food. However, these advancements also raise ethical concerns. The potential for creating “designer babies” through gene editing has sparked debates about the boundaries of genetic manipulation. The question of whether it’s ethical to alter human DNA to enhance physical or cognitive traits continues to challenge bioethicists, policymakers and society at large. Data indicates the exponential growth of genetic engineering research. In the past decade, the number of scientific publications related to CRISPR technology has multiplied significantly. In 2010, there were approximately 150 CRISPR-related publications; by 2020, that number had soared to over 9,000. This surge demonstrates the profound impact of genetic engineering on the scientific community. As we navigate this brave new world of genetic engineering, striking a balance between innovation and ethical considerations remains paramount. The potential to cure genetic diseases, enhance food security and make leaps in scientific understanding is immense. However, careful consideration and collaboration are necessary to ensure that the benefits are realized while addressing the ethical complexities that accompany these technological breakthroughs.

Which gene editing technology has gained prominence recently?

  1. It is used for creating GM crops
  2. It is a tool for gene editing
  3. It enhances physical traits
  4. It is used in biofortification

Answer: A. It is used for creating GM crops

OPSC PYQ 2 (2022) — English Comprehension

EMBEZZLE

In the following question, choose the word which best expresses the meaning of the given word: EMBEZZLE

  1. Misappropriate
  2. Balance
  3. Remunerate
  4. Clear

Answer: A. Misappropriate

OPSC PYQ 3 (2023) — Reasoning

How many pairs of letters are there in the word 'CASTRAPHONE' which have as many letters between them in the word as in the alphabet?

  1. 3
  2. 4
  3. 5
  4. 6

Answer: D. 6

Free sample · Question 1 of 3

Science · 2022

Direction / Passage

Genetic engineering, a revolutionary branch of biotechnology, continues to evolve rapidly, transforming the way we approach medicine, agriculture and various scientific endeavours. Recent developments in this field highlight both the immense potential and ethical considerations that come with the power to manipulate DNA. In the medical realm, gene editing technologies like CRISPR-Cas9 have gained prominence. These tools offer unprecedented precision in modifying genes, holding promise for treating genetic disorders. In a groundbreaking clinical trial, researchers successfully used gene editing to treat sickle cell anaemia. The patient’s own modified cells were reintroduced into their body, resulting in reduced symptoms and an improved quality of life. In agriculture, genetic engineering is driving advancements in crop production and food security. The development of Genetically Modified (GM) crops has enabled plants to resist pests, withstand harsh climates and improve nutritional content. For instance, GM rice has been biofortified to contain higher levels of essential vitamins, potentially combating malnutrition in regions where rice is a staple food. However, these advancements also raise ethical concerns. The potential for creating “designer babies” through gene editing has sparked debates about the boundaries of genetic manipulation. The question of whether it’s ethical to alter human DNA to enhance physical or cognitive traits continues to challenge bioethicists, policymakers and society at large. Data indicates the exponential growth of genetic engineering research. In the past decade, the number of scientific publications related to CRISPR technology has multiplied significantly. In 2010, there were approximately 150 CRISPR-related publications; by 2020, that number had soared to over 9,000. This surge demonstrates the profound impact of genetic engineering on the scientific community. As we navigate this brave new world of genetic engineering, striking a balance between innovation and ethical considerations remains paramount. The potential to cure genetic diseases, enhance food security and make leaps in scientific understanding is immense. However, careful consideration and collaboration are necessary to ensure that the benefits are realized while addressing the ethical complexities that accompany these technological breakthroughs.

Which gene editing technology has gained prominence recently?

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