Global temperatures to reach near-record highs in next five years, report finds

The 2026 report is the latest in an annual series of climate predictions produced by the WMO and UK Met Office. [General Knowledge: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has been producing global climate reports for decades, with increasing focus on decadal predictions under the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS).] The key reference point for this report—the 1.5°C threshold—originates from the 2015 Paris Agreement, where governments committed to holding the global average temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. [General Knowledge: The Paris Agreement was adopted in December 2015 and entered into force in November 2016. It is a legally binding international treaty on climate change, under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).] The 1.5°C goal was emphasised further following the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) in 2018, which highlighted the severe impacts of even 1.5°C of warming. [General Knowledge: The 2023 WMO State of the Global Climate report confirmed 2023 as the warmest year on record, followed by 2024 breaking that record.] The current report’s prediction that a single year may temporarily exceed 1.5°C reflects growing certainty about ongoing warming. It builds on previous predictions: [General Knowledge: In 2023, WMO reported a 66% chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C in the next five years; this likelihood has now increased.] The report also highlights the Arctic amplification phenomenon, which has been observed and modelled for decades—the Arctic warming at a rate roughly 2-4 times faster than the global average, driven by ice-albedo feedback.